Why US Shoppers’ Spending Online Could Be ‘Equivalent to Two Black Fridays’ This Week

Amazon’s (AMZN) annual “Prime Day” sale kicks off Tuesday and is projected to boost online spending to a record $23.8 billion across U.S. retailers, according to an Adobe forecast released Monday, thanks to heavy discounts across a host of products including apparel, electronics, and appliances.

After sales hit an all-time high during last year’s event, Amazon has extended this year’s sale to four days from two. Adobe projected U.S. sales from July 8 to July 11 to jump 28.4% year-over-year, or rise by $9.6 billion compared to the same period last year. 

“This is equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8 billion in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season,” the report said.

Shopping on Mobile Devices Seen Reaching New Highs

Shopping on mobile devices could also hit a new high, estimated at 52.5% of online sales. Adobe said U.S. retailers are expected to discount their products by between 10% and 24% off the listed price, with apparel having the biggest discounts.

“Consumers are expected to ‘trade up’ to higher-ticket items, driven by strong discounts,” Adobe said, adding that budget-conscious shoppers are also increasingly using generative AI to scout out deals, “getting a head start on back-to-school shopping.”

Adobe said its forecast is based on an analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail ecommerce sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories. An Amazon spokesperson said in response to a request for comment from Investopedia that the company doesn’t “speculate on performance, but know[s] saving is important to our Prime members, now more than ever.”

Amazon shares were little changed in recent trading Monday. They’ve gained close to 2% so far this year.