Sunday links: remaining humble

Rates

• 30-year mortgage rates are once again above 7.0% (mortgagenewsdaily.com)
• TIPS are getting hurt worse than nominal Treasurys. (fa-mag.com)
• Some explanations for the Treasury sell-off. (mortgagenewsdaily.com)
• Treasury volatility is crazy high. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com)
• If the U.S. Treasury market isn’t the global safe haven, what is? (nytimes.com)

Markets

• How good is the P/E ratio if E is uncertain? (tker.co)
• The stock market bottoms before the economy. (downtownjoshbrown.com)
• Buy-and-hold investors just keep buying. (theirrelevantinvestor.com)

Strategy

• During periods of market turmoil people want feel like they some control. (awealthofcommonsense.com)
• How to properly diversify your portfolio. (humbledollar.com)

Crypto

• Trying to put a number on how much the Trump family has profited from crypto. (bloomberg.com)
• The crypto industry’s lobbying effort has paid off, big time. (nytimes.com)

Companies

• The number one job of any company is not to go bankrupt. (polymathinvestor.com)
• Mammoth, i.e. Harry’s Razor Brand, wants to become a consumer goods giant. (nytimes.com)
• Evan McMurray, “Facebook’s final form is not digital connector, but digital bazaar.” (theatlantic.com)

Tariffs

• Smartphones and computer are now exempt from reciprocal tariffs. (cnbc.com)
• How Tim Cook got Apple ($AAPL) off the hook from tariffs. (wsj.com)
• Why U.S. spirit makers get caught up in every global trade spat. (nytimes.com)
• Tracking the ever changing tariff rates is a challenge. (apricitas.io)
• Tariff uncertainty goes up by the day. (paulkrugman.substack.com)

China

• China has plenty of options to cause the U.S. economic pain. (axios.com)
• Why tariffs are a strategic gift to China. (wsj.com)

Power

• Most of Trump’s biggest moves are based upon long forgotten ’emergency powers.’ (vox.com)
• Chemerinsky and Tribe, “If the government can disappear any people it wishes, dump them in a Salvadoran dungeon and prevent any court in this country from providing relief, we all should be very, very afraid.” (nytimes.com)
• The Presidency has been ascendant for decades now. (edgyoptimist.substack.com)

Voting

• The President has no constitutional authority in the conduct of elections. (theatlantic.com)
• Congress has no constitutional role in establishing voter qualifications. (slate.com)
• It’s clear that Trump isn’t over his 2020 election loss. (wapo.st)

Government

• HHS is in turmoil. (politico.com)
• The oversight of generic drugs is now in doubt. (thefdalawblog.com)
• Despite claims to the contrary, USAID is cutting lifesaving aid programs. (msn.com)
• The Forest Service is now less capable of fighting fires. (propublica.org)
• More than 13 million Americans almost totally reliant on Social Security for retirement income. (crr.bc.edu)
• DOGE has a hard time itemizing its ‘savings.’ (nytimes.com)

Economy

• 2025 Q1 GDP is tracking around 0% growth. (calculatedriskblog.com)
• Economic policy uncertainty is at a record high. (econbrowser.com)
• Tariff talk is not helping consumer sentiment. (econbrowser.com)
• Tariffs are a real challenge for the Fed. (mikekonczal.substack.com)
• The economic schedule, as it were, for the coming week. (calculatedriskblog.com)

Earlier on Abnormal Returns

• Top clicks last week on the site. (abnormalreturns.com)
• What you missed in our Saturday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
• You can now follow us on Bluesky. (bsky.app)
• Are you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should be. (abnormalreturns.com)

Mixed media

• Indoor golf isn’t as good as outdoor, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have some charms. (wsj.com)
• Why A1 steak sauce is in the news. (fastcompany.com)
• ‘The Pitt’ is as good as people say. (danieldrezner.substack.com)