Sunday links: a fighting chance

Strategy

• How do you know when you are wrong about an investment? (polymathinvestor.com)
• Don’t base your investments on economic forecasts. (humbledollar.com)

Companies

• A good product is not sufficient to create a lasting enterprise. (tker.co)
• The loss of $20 billion a year with 100% margin would be a big deal to Apple ($AAPL). (bigtechnology.com)
• Airbnb ($ABNB) has changed how people travel. (quartr.com)
• Why you should expect more acquihires. (tomtunguz.com)

ETFs

• Starting an ETF has never been easier or cheaper. That is no guarantee of success. (morningstar.com)
• What constitutes success one year in for an active ETF? (etf.com)

Global

• Visits from the Pope are good for business. (klementoninvesting.substack.com)
• How the Houthis fought the U.S. Navy to a stalemate. (wsj.com)
• Tension between the U.S. and Canada is being felt in border towns. (nytimes.com)
• Why were Germany and Italy the last European countries to unify? (unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com)

Policy

• If you are soleyly focused on tax cuts, then the deficit is unsolvable. (theatlantic.com)
• Under Trump everything is a national emergency. (npr.org)
• How many lives are aid cutbacks putting at risk? (cgdev.org)
• The entire Fulbright board has quit in protest. (axios.com)
• Revoking birthright citizenship would be chaos. (theatlantic.com)
• What it takes to get a pardon these days. (wapo.st)

Immigration

• Alex Tabarrok, “Do we really want to spend billions to deport dishwashers from Oaxaca while rapes in Ohio committed by US citizens go under-investigated?” (marginalrevolution.com)
• The immigration strategy is already bumping up against reality on the ground. (slate.com)
• Part of the reason the U.S. economy has grown faster than the rest of the world is immigration. (semafor.com)
• Net immigration could turn negative in 2025. (wapo.st)

Protest

• Putting some estimates on the turnout to ‘No Kings’ protests. (gelliottmorris.com)
• In defense of traditional American values like free speech, democracy and immigration. (noahpinion.blog)

Economy

• How a war-related jump in oil prices could affect the economy. (apolloacademy.com)
• How tariffs are already roiling the American economy. (apricitas.io)
• Where business cycle indicators stand in mid-June. (econbrowser.com)
• The economic cycle for the coming week. (calculatedriskblog.com)

Earlier on Abnormal Returns

• Top clicks this week on the site. (abnormalreturns.com)
• What you missed in our Saturday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
• Everyone in life (and investing) is running their own race. (abnormalreturns.com)
• Don’t miss a thing! Sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter. (abnormalreturns.com)

Mixed media

• 8 insights from “Diet, Drugs, and Dopamine: The New Science of Achieving a Healthy Weight” by Dr. David Kessler. (npr.org)
• A review of “The Nvidia Way: Jensen Huang and the Making of a Tech Giant” by Tae Kim. (patientcapitalfund.substack.com)
• The case for reading “The Rider” by Tim Krabbe. (defector.com)