[ad_1]
As investors positioned themselves ahead of the first real week of the U.S.-led trade war, the S&P 500 and Dow industrials reversed lower off clear resistance at their 200-day moving averages. The Nasdaq whipsawed after two days of gains, ending less than 1% above its March 11 low. That left the Nasdaq squarely in correction status heading into the final trading day of the first quarter.
Earnings will be minimal during the coming week, with a few names such as Acuity (AYI), Conagra (CAG) and Lamb Weston (LW) maybe drawing the most attention. All eyes will be on tariffs and prices for automobiles and energy, as well as gold, the U.S. dollar and bitcoin, to attempt to gauge any early discernible impact as tariffs take effect.
↑
X
Follow-Through Days: Why You Need To Know This Market Timing Signal
Stocks To Watch: Stocks In A Wandering Market
The stock market is trying to rebound, but hitting resistance amid a variety of macroeconomic and technical headwinds. Investors should be looking for stocks with strong relative strength for their watchlists, but it’s not a great time to be adding exposure. Sea (SE), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), Travere Therapeutics (TVTX), Deere (DE) and Allstate (ALL) are all near buy points or early entries. Singapore-based digital play Sea is holding support at its 21-day moving average in a base-on-base pattern. Bargain shop Ollie’s shaped a double-bottom base immediately following a December breakout. Allstate holds below a buy point, as insurers remain one of the robust segments of the market.
Economic Calendar: Payrolls May Pressure The Fed
Fed policymakers want to hold off cutting rates again until they have clarity on the full Trump agenda. But clarity on tax cuts could take months. Friday’s March jobs report is one of two monthly employment reports before the May 7 Fed meeting. It’s the first test of whether the Fed will be able to stay on the sidelines. Economists think the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in March, as employers added 125,000 payroll positions, including 120,000 in the private sector. Gains below 100,000 could pressure the Fed to act. Institute for Supply Management surveys on manufacturing and services, on Tuesday and Thursday, will provide the first broad look at economic conditions in March.
Institute for Supply Management surveys on manufacturing and services, on Tuesday and Thursday, will provide the first broad look at economic conditions in March. Investors also may react to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, out Tuesday, and the monthly employment estimate from payroll processor ADP.
Key Fed Inflation Rate Heats Up Before Trump Tariffs Hit
Market Perspective: Gaming The Odds Of Recession
The online betting platform Polymarket showed the percentage of wagers betting on a recession in 2025 rose to 44% as of March 15. The odds have since backed off to 33%. The item showed dollar volume of $902,000 Friday morning. Bets on inflation rising above 3% in 2025 rose above 88% in late February. Those are now around 56%. Another 16% saw inflation above 4%. Between Feb. 19 and March 13, the S&P 500 fell into a correction. This typically occurs, says Ed Yardeni, “when investors fear a recession is imminent.” Forward S&P 500 earnings views continue to increase because analysts give higher weight to the views of company management. That divergence pressures the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio. Bear markets — declines of 20% or more — occur, Yardeni says, “when investors’ recession fears are realized, forcing industry analysts to scramble to cut their earnings estimates.” Yardeni Research on Friday raised its probability of a recession from 20% to 35%, “because of the Trump administration’s increasing tariff turmoil and shotgun approach to reducing federal government payrolls.”
Earnings Season: Some Late Season Highlights
Reports from packaged food leaders Lamb Weston and Conagra on Thursday could lend perspective on the impact of trade tariffs on grocery prices. Analysts expect lighting leader Acuity to show an upturn in revenue growth, followed by earnings gains starting in Q2. The stock is trading tight, trying to form a bottom in a two-month consolidation.
JPMorgan, 2 Insurance Bellwethers Set To Kick Off Earnings Season
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE:
Join IBD Live Each Morning For Stock Tips Before The Open
These Are The Best 5 Stocks To Have On Your Watch List
Learn How To Time The Market With IBD’s ETF Market Strategy
Vertical Violations: Why You Should Recognize This Bear Market Indicator
Trump Tariffs Slam Stock Market. More Are Coming.
[ad_2]
Source link