Chipotle Stock Has Rolled Its Way Back. Wall Street Isn’t Looking for Much More

Chipotle’s stock has recovered, and then some, from its post-“Liberation Day” slump. Wall Street doesn’t expect much more upside.

What gives? That’s the latest question for investors in the burrito-rolling, quesadilla-flipping, taco-topping giant, shares of which rose more than 30% in 2024 but this year—despite their steady climb since early April—are down nearly 9% through Friday’s close. 

Analysts broadly see plenty of room for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to keep growing. Management is targeting thousands of new restaurants in North America alone. But the company in late April warned of less same-store sales growth this year than previously expected. The closely watched number turned negative in the first quarter amid economic uncertainty and other factors. 

That has contributed to a tepid outlook for the historically high-flying stock—and several others in the food business, to be sure—among sell-side analysts. The current mean price target for Chipotle, as tracked by Visible Alpha, is $59.12, 7% above Friday’s close. Even at that level, Chipotle would still be down for the year. 

A ‘Struggle’ to See More Upside for the Stock

“With recent underlying momentum strong, we believe Chipotle shares once again justify a premium valuation on what should be outsized top and bottom-line growth going forward,” Barclays analysts wrote Thursday. “However, we struggle to forecast additional upside, with expectations already elevated and high-growth concepts vulnerable to a slowing macro.”

Barclays reiterated a “neutral” rating, lifting its price target—but only by $2, to $54, a boost more restrained than those it gave to shares of several counterparts, Shake Shack (SHAK) among them. 

JPMorgan analysts in late May reiterated a “neutral” rating on Chipotle, clipping their price target by $4 to $54, and on Wednesday called the stock “near fairly priced.”

Chipotle’s second-quarter results are due July 23. Wall Street is looking for a 2.9% year-over-year drop in same-store sales, far worse than the 0.4% the company reported for the first quarter. In the company’s Q1 earnings conference call, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense, CEO Scott Boatwright said the consumer was “sitting on the sideline.”

To be sure, there’s more bullishness out there in some corners—including at Stifel, which at $65 is one of a few outfits tied with the highest target as tracked by Visible Alpha. 

“We were encouraged [that] the company is responding quickly to the realities of the current environment,” the bank’s analysts wrote in late April. “We believe Chipotle is well-positioned to regain sales momentum.”