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Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows is back in the Premier League predictions chair to provide his insight and best bets.
Liverpool vs Bournemouth, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
We are so back.
Bournemouth, with Andoni Iraola at the helm, won’t just park the bus on this Friday night trip to Anfield under the lights. This is a side that presses high, plays boldly, and can punch back when falling behind.
Expect end-to-end football, counter-attacks from both teams in a league that is now a fast-break central, and a few defensive wobbles to crank up the tension. Liverpool are going to take a few weeks to gain cohesion and chemistry across their new-look backline.
This opens the door for Bournemouth to add to the scoring, so Liverpool to win and both teams to score at 6/4 with Sky Bet should go close.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2
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Aston Villa vs Newcastle United, Saturday 12:30pm
The case for an Aston Villa win is very compelling at 6/5 with Sky Bet when assessing all the evidence.
Alexander Isak is missing for Newcastle in a saga that has been managed appallingly by those advising him – it didn’t need to be like this.
Of course, Eddie Howe has managed the situation perfectly, giving Isak the disappointed dad treatment rather than going too heavy on him in public. Howe is a master in these situations, but one area in management where he does struggle, looking at his recor,d is getting a team to start the season fast.
Across the first three league games of a season for each club he’s managed, he’s only working at a 1.25 points per game ratio (P24 W8 D6 L10) and a winless pre-season won’t have helped preparations for this one.
Across the Champions League and Premier League, Villa are unbeaten in 24 home games, winning the last seven – including beating Newcastle 4-1 in April.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Aston Villa to win (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
If there’s one fixture flying under the radar that screams goals at the prices this weekend, it’s this one. I’m here banging the drum for the over 2.5 goals line at 4/6 with Sky Bet as a base to build a bet from.
Brighton like to be positive at home and play with attacking risk in committing bodies forward, but that leaves gaps which expose their centre-backs. That’s why backing the over line in their games last season was a betting-friendly angle, with 27 of their 38 games producing three or more goals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Sunderland vs West Ham. Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
This has the smell of a goalless grind, doesn’t it?
I’m struggling to see how Sunderland score goals at this level. They only scored 1.29 goals per game last season – the eighth-highest in the Sky Bet Championship. Even Sheffield Wednesday averaged more.
Regis Le Bris is someone who is suited to defence-first football and that is very hard to implement in this league with the quality in opposition ranks. Low-probability chances get taken.
Le Bris will want to make this a scrap, kill the tempo, and smother the game. It’s Sunderland’s best chance for points.
I wouldn’t talk you out of the 0-0 correct score at a juicy price of 11/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Tottenham vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
Now I’m not for one second suggesting Scott Parker’s side are about to storm North London and walk away with three points, but I do think the markets are disrespecting Burnley’s potential to keep this competitive and overrating Spurs slightly based on their Super Cup heroics.
This is a tough gig for Thomas Frank. Expectation is internally very high and Frank has no experience of managing workloads within a squad asked to compete across four competitions.
They looked strong and organised for large parts vs PSG, but I think we need to treat that piece of form very carefully as the French side were clearly miles undercooked.
Burnley aren’t going to change their rigid and pragmatic style going up a level. This could be fiddly for Spurs as Burnley should be able to cover their +1.5 goal start handicap at 4/5 with Sky Bet, meaning we just need them not to lose by two or more goals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Wolves vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
Jhon Arias could just take the Premier League by storm in this Wolves team. All the evidence suggests he’ll adapt pretty quickly, be a main man in attack and judging by what I saw at the Club World Cup and from people who follow the Brazilian league, he has the quality to thrive in England.
Wolves have played the Brazilian market very shrewdly in recent years, with Joao Gomes and Andre showing real adaptability to the league.
Quick, direct and a great drawer of fouls, Arias will be to the fore for Wolves as they look to take advantage of Man City’s vulnerabilities in transition without Rodri. Back him to be fouled at least twice through the Sky Bet BuildABet function at Evens.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Jhon Arias to be fouled at least twice rates as a decent wager at Evens
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
Trimmed from 20/1 to 8/1 in the summer to win the Premier League, there is a chance Enzo Maresca just might be building something extremely exciting at Chelsea.
And why should we be taking them seriously? Moises Caicedo and Cole Palmer – they are Chelsea’s assassins and quite possibly the core of what could be a title-winning side.
Since Caicedo has found rhythm in the Chelsea midfield, he has owned so many games, including the Club World Cup final against PSG. If Chelsea are going to suffocate opponents and dominate the ball in big games – which they will need to do to win a title – it all starts with Caicedo.
And Palmer is the stardust. When the spotlight is on, when the stage is at it’s highest, Palmer performs. He can go to Eden Hazard’s levels of domination at Chelsea this season.
This axis puts Chelsea in the title mix, no question. It’s a four-way fight. And they can start with a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
Nottingham Forest played some unsustainable football last season and it’s very hard to see how they’re going to improve on what they achieved.
Top goalscorer Chris Wood converted 30 per cent of his overall attempts in the Premier League last term, while goalkeeper Matz Sels enjoyed the season of his life, boasting the best save percentage in the league. They can’t be expected to keep those numbers up.
And Forest return to Europe this season which is bound to influence the side’s performance. If you exclude Conference League participants, non-big-six teams who qualify for Europe win around 14 points fewer in the campaign immediately following qualification.
That isn’t too relevant for this devilishly difficult fixture to analyse from a betting perspective, but something to note when the fixtures start to pile up. This clash looks one where the draw is a huge runner at 12/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This is going to a very watchable fixture, steeped in Premier League narrative – but one where goals could be lacking.
I’m firmly in the under 2.5 goals camp – and at the prices on offer at 10/11 with Sky Bet I’m happy to endorse it as one of the best bets of the weekend.
Arsenal are traditionally a very reliable team to back under goals away from home, albeit also a risky favourite to back in these spots.
When assessing the last nine games where they’ve gone off 11/10 or bigger on the road, they have won just once and the average goals per game sits at just 1.89 per 90 with seven of those nine going under 2.5 goals.
Additionally, seven of those games finished all-square while four of the five meetings between Mikel Arteta and Ruben Amorim have also ended level.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Lots of the focus and pre-match narrative will be about Leeds, but I’m excited to see what Everton can do this season.
I think we need to start putting some serious respect on what David Moyes is doing in the Premier League – I for one haven’t given him enough credit. Since taking over at West Ham, he has recorded a 37 per cent win ratio in the Premier League – that’s higher than Sean Dyche, Andoni Iraola, Marco Silva and Graham Potter.
And when Jarrad Branthwaite was fit last season (he started 28 games), Everton conceded just 28 goals in those matches – that’s one goal per game, which would equate to being the second-best defensive record in the Premier League last season.
With Branthwaite tied down to a new deal and money to spend, Moyes just may have the tools to overachieve on expectations. I like their chances at Elland Road, too, as Moyes has an exceptional record against newly-promoted teams, recording a 67-per-cent win rate from the last 16 fixtures. The away win looks big at 19/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
- 1pt double on: Aston Villa to beat Newcastle & under 2.5 goals in Manchester United vs Arsenal (11/5 with Sky Bet)
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